The Remaining Superdelegates; It's Not Pretty.

Well since Rachel Maddow's comments and various diaries that hit the rec list with regularity, the big question right now is whether Obama can close this thing out by the end of May.  Since there are no primaries before that day, it will have to be done with SDs.

Perhaps it is time to start breaking the remaining SDs down and see who might endorse Obama before the meeting on FL and MI.  My apologies in advance for formatting issues.

DemConWatch says there are 211 remaining SDs.  If you add in members of the Pelosi Club who are in the Pelosi Club but are counted toward one candidate or another (Cantwell, Lofgren, Daschle) the actual number remaining is 214.  Thirteen more delegates are currently outstanding, 4 from KY/OR not yet assigned, and 9 remaining Edwards delegates who have not endorsed.  So the pool from which Obama can reach his magic number is 227.

DemConWatch also says Obama needs 63 more delegates to reach the 2025 threshold.  However, if you consider Lofgren and Daschle as undecided as I did above, that number becomes 65.  More on why I do this below.

So starting from 227, the first thing to consider is that 30 of those will not even be named by the end of May because they are add-ons not yet assigned.  So the pool is now 197.

Of those 197, we might as well give up on the following delegates.  They are party, DNC, elected, etc etc officials who are going to remain neutral in the hopes this all works out without them stepping in.

Hon. Joyce Beatty (OH) DNC Dem. Legislative Campaign Comm.
Howard Dean (VT) DNC DNC Chairman
Linda Chavez -Thompson (TX) DNC DNC Vice Chair
Lottie Shackleford (AR) DNC DNC Vice Chair
Susan Turnbull (MD) DNC DNC Vice Chair
Philip D. Murphy (NJ) DNC National Finance Chair
Christine Warnke (DC) DNC Nat'l Dem. Ethnic Coord. Comm.
Helen Knetzer (KS) DNC Nat'l Fed. of Dem. Women
Alice Germond (WV) DNC Secretary
Donna Brazile (DC) DNC
Al Gore (TN) DPL
George Mitchell (NY) DPL
Fmr. DNC Chair Bob Strauss (TX) DPL
Rahm Emanuel (IL) Representatives
Steny Hoyer (MD) Representatives
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) Representatives
Mike Honda (CA) Representatives DNC Vice Chair
Rep. Jim Clyburn (SC) Representatives
Joe Biden (DE) Senators
Tom Harkin (IA) Senators
Harry Reid (NV) Senators
Jim Webb (VA) Senators

So the 197 is down to 175.  However, we must also consider there is a group of Add-ons and State Chairs who have not yet declared, but come from states Hillary won, thus they will have a hard time endorsing Obama.

Terry Goddard (AZ)#
Art Torres (CA)
Don Bivens (AZ)
Raymond Buckley (NH)
Nathan Smith (KY)

So now we are at 170.  However, there is also a couple of delegates who endanger themselves politically in future elections if they endorse Obama, such as Tom Udall and Nick Lampson (and there's probably plenty more), so we are down to 168.  Take away vacancies that won't be filled by the end of May and we are down to 167.  There's also 7 SDs from MT, South Dakota, and PR who have yet to endorse and probably won't by the end of May, so we are down to 160.  Moss and Malone have indicated they will go with Hillary according to non-DemConWatch sources.  Down to 158.  Ooops, I missed five other state chairs from states Clinton won.  Down to 153.

Now of course we are learning just how spineless many of our Democratic elected officials are, so we can probably bank on Congresspersons who represent districts Hillary won to not endorse Obama.

Bud Cramer (AL)
Gabrielle Giffords (AZ)
Jerry McNerney (CA)
Sam Farr (CA)
Jim Costa (CA)
Bob Filner (CA)
John Olver (MA)
Niki Tsongas (MA)
John Tierney (MA)
Edward Markey (MA)
Rep. Travis Childers (MS)
Alan Mollohan (WV)

Down to 141.  And while we are at it, we might as well throw out Senators from states Clinton won, DNC members from states Hillary won big, Governors from states Hillary won, and Congresspersons from 'white working class' states regardless of what happened in their district

Dr. Inez Crutchfield (TN) DNC
Jay Parmley (OK) DNC
Jim Frasier (OK) DNC
Steve Beshear (KY) Governors
Phil Bredeson (TN) Governors
Joe Manchin (WV) Governors
Rep. Dan Boren (OK) Representatives
Lincoln Davis (TN) Representatives
Bart Gordon (TN) Representatives
Charlie Wilson (OH) Representatives
Marcia Kaptur (OH) Representatives
Rep. Zack Space (OH) Representatives
Bob Brady (PA) Representatives
Jason Altmire (PA) Representatives
Tim Holden (PA) Representatives
Rep. Mike Doyle (PA) Representatives
Frank Lautenberg (NJ) Senators
Sherrod Brown (OH) Senators
Jack Reed (RI) Senators

We are down to 122.  Speaking of political courage, time to address the Pelosi Club.  They lack spines.  If they truly were dedicated to the positions they have taken and behind the rules as they currently stand, they would have endorsed today.  I feel safe throwing them out until after May.

Betty Richie (TX)
Christine Pelosi (CA)
Denise Johnson (TX)
Tom Daschle (SD)
Jimmy Carter (GA)
Zoe Lofgren (CA)
Nancy Pelosi (CA)
Maria Cantwell (WA)

We are down to 115.  Since Colorado will host the Convention, I highly doubt any of the remaining CO delegates will endorse any time soon.  Down to 110.  Throw out the party's resident loon, Steve Ybarra, and we are down to 109.

So that leaves these 109 people from whom Obama would need to gain 65 delegates between now and the end of May to clinch

4 undecided between KY/OR
9 undecided Edwards SDs
TBD (AL) Add On 5/23
TBD (GA) Add On 5/24
TBD (GA) Add On 5/24
TBD (WY) Add On 5/24
TBD (HI) Add On 5/25
Jay Nixon (MO)# Add-Ons Named
Rusty McAllister (NV)# Add-Ons Named
Vacant Vacant (HI) DNC 5/25 Vacant State Chair
Vacant - Vacant (HI) DNC 5/25 Vacant State Vice Chair
Hon. Bill Bradbury (OR) DNC Dem. Assoc. of Secretary of States
Hon. Robin Carnahan (MO) DNC Dem. Assoc. of Secretary of States
Hon. Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) DNC Dem. Attorneys Gen. Assoc.
Helen Langan (UT) DNC Previously supported Clinton
C Richard Cranwell (VA) DNC State Chair
Chris Whittington (LA) DNC State Chair
David Strauss (ND) DNC State Chair
Joe Turnham (AL) DNC State Chair
John Daniello (DE) DNC State Chair
John Temporiti (MO) DNC State Chair
Meredith Woods-Smith (OR) DNC State Chair
Nancy DiNardo (CT) DNC State Chair
Sam Lieberman (NV) DNC State Chair
Pilar Lujan (GU) DNC State Chair (Territory)
Boyd Richie (TX) DNC State Chair and Husband of Betty Richie (TX DNC)
Elsie Burkhalter (LA) DNC State Second Vice Chair
Carnelia Pettis Fondren (MS) DNC State Vice Chair
Eileen Macoll (WA) DNC State Vice Chair
Frank Dixon (OR) DNC State Vice Chair
Harriet Smith-Windsor (DE) DNC State Vice Chair
Nancy Drummond (WY) DNC State Vice Chair
Nancy Worley (AL) DNC State Vice Chair
Yolanda Wheat (MO) DNC State Vice Chair
Marylyn Stapleton (VI) DNC State Vice Chair (Territory)
David Hardt (TX DNC Young Dems of America
Belkis Leong-Hong (MD) DNC
Ben Pangelinan (GU) DNC
Bob Mulholland (CA) DNC
Carol Peterson (NC) DNC
Claude "Buddy" Leach (LA) DNC
Cynthia Nunley (WY) DNC
David McDonald (WA) DNC
David Parker (NC) DNC
Debra Kozikowski (MA) DNC
Ed Cote (WA) DNC
Edward Smith (IL) DNC
Gail Rasmussen (OR) DNC
Hon. Alexis Herman (VA) DNC
Hon. Carole Migden (CA) DNC
Hon. Gilda Cobb-Hunter (SC) DNC
Hon. Heather Mizeur (MD) DNC
Hon. Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO) DNC
Hon. Yvonne Gates (NV) DNC
Irene Stein (NY) DNC
James Roosevelt Jr (MA) DNC
Jennifer DeChant (ME) DNC
Jenny Greenleaf (OR) DNC
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA) DNC
Jim Leaman (VA) DNC
John Perez (CA) DNC
John Sweeney (MD) DNC
Leila Medley (MO) DNC
Muriel Offerman (NC) DNC
Paula Zellner (WI) DNC
Ralph Dawson (NY) DNC
Richard Ray (GA) DNC
Robert Rankin (CA) DNC
Sam Spencer (ME) DNC
Sharon Mast (WA) DNC
Wayne Kinney (OR) DNC
John Lynch (NH) Governors
Susan Davis (CA) Representatives
Jim Marshall (GA) Representatives
Nancy Boyda (KS) Representatives
Dennis Moore (KS) Representatives
William Jefferson (LA) Representatives
Charlie Melancon (LA) Representatives
Don Cazayoux (LA) Representatives
Rep. Michael Michaud (ME) Representatives
John Sarbanes (MD) Representatives
Chris Van Hollen (MD) Representatives
Collin Peterson (MN) Representatives
Gene Taylor (MS) Representatives
Rep. Rush Holt (NJ) Representatives
Rep. Bob Etheridge (NC) Representatives
Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC) Representatives
John Spratt (SC) Representatives
Jim Matheson (UT) Representatives
Tom Carper (DE) Senators
Mary Landrieu (LA) Senators
Ben Cardin (MD) Senators
Ron Wyden (OR) Senators
Herb Kohl (WI) Senators

Now you can quivel with a few names here or there, but something is crystal clear, it is an uphill climb to get to 2025 by the end of May, and therefore it's looking more and more like this is going to the convention floor.